The Winning Formula - 10th anniversary edition

Since I have been trying to scientifically work out the Winning Formula for winning Strictly for 10 years now, I believe I deserve some sort of academically-recognised award. It's stood the test of time pretty well over the decade, but the present for a tenth wedding anniversary is apparently tin, and that doesn't feel glamorous enough. A teeny tiny glitterball trophy with my initials scratched on it maybe?

As we go into this, I would like to highlight that last year the Formula picked 2 out of four finalists correctly - Alexandra and Gemma (the other one was Aston, make of that what you will). My work is never done, let's get down to 2018...

1) Get the party started
I concede, we've stretched this definition a bit over the years, with contestants being split into two batches and giving us two opportunities for a 'first dance', but Gemma really came through last year by dancing first and making her way to the final. That tentative cha cha in an odd orange dress had me worried for a while, but the formula came thorough once again! It's one show for everyone's first dance this year once again, so I'll be biting my nails like a Kermit the frog GIF.

2) Quit your day job
It's clear that Strictly and doing another job rarely goes well; physically, mentally...spiritually? Unless you are the superhuman breed known as the BBC News presenter, so no pressure there Kate Silverton! Last year hilariously proved this, after Joe had not only left Holby City, but also didn't reveal the shock of his character being killed off! The drama! There are some difficult scenarios this year, with Charles staying on Casualty and commuting from Wales, but that pales in comparison to Lauren doing a competition literally on the other side of the world before week 1 - poor AJ didn't even get a trip to Oz out of this! Can you take a day off from being a YouTuber? Will Dianne have to surgically remove that phone from Joe's hand? Expect all the *crazy* jokes about the youth of today to not wear thin at all...

3) Blondes don't have more fun
The evidence is right before your eyes, we had a 50% blonde final last year, and it still don't come through and Abbey Clancy remains our sole blonde winner - what is that about? Debbie McGee is also about the blondest person in the world, if she couldn't do it, I can only assume the British public is inherently prejudiced. If this plays out, we're losing Ashley, Faye, Katie, and Susannah at the outset, while Stacey is holding it up for the redheads this year - will we ever have a ginger winner? The #JusticeForGingerNeil campaign continues apace. 

4) Latin fever
Once again, we had a latin specialist win Strictly last year, making Jo Clifton the ballroom pioneer of the ages for all of two years. As for this new batch of pros, Graziano is very much a latin specialist (whilst simultaneously having to take on the Strictly mantle of Most Italian Man Ever, I assume), so it looks like ballroom specialists are off the table for another year. Unless some Terpsichorean miracle occurs with Anton that is, along with dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria, etc. 

5) Age is more than a number
This is where we had our *shock* variation last year, with Joe winning despite reaching the grand old age of 42. Before you start throwing sparkly bedpans at me, up until that point, no one had won Strictly over the age of 40. It's a fairly young cast this year, with nine out of 15 under 40, and a couple of people sneaking in at 39 - keep your eyes on Graeme and Dr Ranj! I'm happy for this variable to be revised as time goes on, because age shouldn't really be a barrier on this show, maybe life can begin at 50?

6) Embrace the sparkle!
The least quantifiable, but most important of variables, you must throw yourself into the glitter pit, head first (and naked, apparently, if you're Jeremy Vine). Strictly requires losing all sense of reality and becoming one with the da-hance, dah-ling. Last year's finalists all had the benefit of being amazing teams together, and we can only hope we get the same this year. Stand-out contestants this year for embracing the sparkle seem to be Seann, with his out-of-the-comfort-zone hysteria, Kate with her mummy-sass, and Stacey and Kevin jumping around like five-year-olds after too much sherbet. Joe on the other hand looks like a rabbit in the headlights, hopefully the fake tan will work its magic.

On doing the calculations (I've definitely shown my working for extra marks), the Winning Formula this year predicts the following people will make it to the final...

Dance first - day job + brunette x latin pro > 40 years old + sparkle =

Graeme
Joe
Lee
Seann
Stacey

As ever, the first dancer on the opening show will be added to the list - in the meantime, throw your hat into the ring and vote in our poll!